The political path forward for Giuseppe Conte is getting narrower. If the States General for the economy have helped the government get through the summer, many political and economic problems will arise for Conte in the autumn, when it will be necessary to decide on the 2021 budget. A SoG monthly report.
“It seems that the more EU authority expands, the more the democratic legitimacy of the Union is in trouble”. The analysis by Daniele Gallo and Cristina Fasone
“The EU perspective of a new, deeper and broader, idea of reciprocity opens the door to new understandings of trade’s cultural impact, on the one hand, and, on the other, on multiple and various forms of cooperation reviving multilateralism by new ways”. An Analysis by Mario Telò about the Europe trade policy and multilateralism
“What is direct effect of EU law and what are its core elements, today? Is direct effect still a useful doctrine of EU law aimed at governing the relationships between the European legal order and domestic legal orders?” The analysis by Daniele Gallo.
For a long time, Western Europe was a land of stability for parties and party systems. In the late 1960s, Lipset and Rokkan even qualified these party systems as ‘frozen’, in that the respective party landscape reflected a more or less unchanging environment over the previous 40 years. The last decade has shown a radically different story, with unparalleled changes occurring in different areas.
“Cultural heritage has a ‘dual nature’. It is means of directly creating and expressing political and cultural identity through places, objects and practices that are given special significance. But it is also a means of attracting consumers in sectors such as tourism, food and wine, whose promotion and protection are linked to identity”. Mark Thatcher’s research about the cultural heritage and the EU’s political identity.
The dramatic human, social, and economic problems caused by the Covid-19 pandemic require that this stalemate be overcome. This Policy Brief by Giuseppe De Michele e Marcello Messori outline a new solution centered on the possible centralization of the property rights of a part of the existing national infrastructures and of new ones at the European level.
The prospect of a new Cold War between China and the United States during the Trump administration create an awkward dilemma for the EU between its commitment to the transatlantic alliance and its partnership and economic interdependence with China.
There is a widespread impression that the rejection by the Commission of the initial budget proposed by the Italian government in October contributed to the renewed increase in the risk spread on Italian government bonds. However, there is no real reason for such a link.
This is where the unexpected slowdown in the first Eurozone economy comes from: weak consumption, the role of immigration, stagnant productivity and fearful exporters. What if German economy was “stable” rather than “dynamic”? The analysis by Daniel Gros for Luiss Open
The first European Parliament elections after the Brexit referendum, the first after the election of Donald Trump and the success of populist parties (and the instalment of “populist” governments) around Europe. The European Parliament elections of 2019 were a first in many aspects, pointing to relevant questions that might be answered once the votes were in. A new work by Luiss CISE
Italy is a high savings country. Its households dispose of a net worth of around 10 thousand billion euro and financial assets of over 4 thousand billion euro. This means that in principle the national public debt of around 2 thousand billion euro cou …
The view that deficits and higher public debt can be beneficial has received an important boost through the recent presidential address of Prof. Olivier Blanchard at the American Economic Association, entitled: “Public debt and low interest rates”. A new editorial by Daniel Gros.
Plans by the Italian government for a deficit of 2.4 % instead of pursuing the adjustment path agreed with the EU have led to a sharp increase in the yields on Italian debt, with the yields on ten-year bonds rising above 3%. Italy seems to be only one step away from such an explosive feedback loop.
Daniel Gros and Mattia Di Salvo discuss, numbers at hand, the real situation about the migrant crisis and the role played in it so far by Italy and Germany
One of the iron laws of Italian politics is that every new government promises more spending in infrastructure; and ask the EU to change its rules by not counting infrastructure spending for the calculation of the deficit. This is indeed an important demand, which needs to get a fair hearing.
Andrea Lorenzo Capussela analyses the latest developments of Italy’s political situation, arguing that while the new government might restore some stability, it is unlikely to tackle the real roots of the crisis, namely low growth, rising inequality, and political distrust
The 2021-2027 EU budget is a small step in the right direction, but not the “fresh start” announced by the Commission. The role of Member States remains unclear, and there are only minor adjustments on the main expenses, such as agriculture and cohesion and security fundings
Mohammed Hashas analyses the question if there is or there is not such a thing as an Islamic European thought. he argues that European Muslims do have their own thought, in theology as well. Such thought can have an influence even in the Arab world
In his latest editorial for LUISS Open’s “A view from Brussels”, Daniel Gros analyses the effects of non-performing loans on the broader Italian credit and banking sector, with a specific reference to France and Germany, arguing that NPLs do not hamper the possibilities of economic growth
The ECB announces the end of the extraordinary monetary policies: the markets do not make a move, as does the spread. What if the quantitative easing has not been a “protective shield” for Italy then? What if it only contributed to change the composition of the Italian public debt, with only temporary effects on the risk premium? Doubts and non-mainstream clues
With elections only a couple of weeks ahead, the tendency to bash the euro (and Europe) seems to have greatly diminished among all parties. But not bashing the euro and its rules is not enough, says Daniel Gros
Draghi’s quantitative easing has been a determining factor in breaking the ‘doom loop’ between weak banks and weak Countries. Now, after the extraordinary monetary policies, there is a development cycle stronger than before, as in the case of exports and capital flows
The international chessboard has dramatically changed in the last few years, which has altered its balance. In this new piece for the column “World Disorder”, Antonio Badini analyses how western powers (especially Europe and Italy) can tackle this new situation and gain advantage from it
Daniel Gros analyses the state of regional convergence within the European context. He finds that different country groups have had quite different experiences following the financial crisis and that in most cases there has been little convergence across regions within countries. More importantly, the seemingly permanent differences in regional per capita income are for some countries mainly the result of differences in occupation ratios.
Fabrizio Barca, economist and former minister, in a conversation with LUISS Open on the new economic, social and recognition faults criss-crossing our continent. Said inequalities also have a territorial aspect. He goes on to describe a European policy (a bit of an ill-treated one) that would be very effective in treating the wounds of the Old Continent
The European Commission’s slap on Italy’s wrist does not take into account a few factors: the robustness of our budget surpluses, the generous contribution to the European home and those advantages that the Euro has granted to the reference country in the Old Continent, that is to say Germany. These are the elements that Brussels should consider before sending its next letter
The reason why the “Jamaica coalition” of conservatives, liberals and greens has collapsed in Germany, and why it will now be difficult to replace it. Immigration, the shaky leadership of the parties and the advancement of the extreme come into play. Europe is shaking.
In the identification between single currency and neoliberal policies, that’s where the anti-Euro movement as well the advocates of the status quo are splashing around. Both, armed against one other, pretend not to see that the problem is not the single currency itself, but the intellectual climate that is now prevailing in Europe. Here are some ideas to finally change direction without blowing up the whole continent, taken from Francesco Saraceno’s preface to the Italian edition of Martin Sandbu’s book “Europe’s Orphan”.
Milanovic book shows that a new global middle class is gaining from globalization, along with a few super-rich ones, but the historic middle class is losing. Philosophy helps to understand these numbers and the western mood of us.
The LUISS School of European Political Economy continues to examine the German line on the reform of the single currency and the European Union. The new policy document by Baglioni and Bordignon responds to the “non-paper” by its former Minister of Finance
A group of German and French intellectuals have put forward some proposals for the advancement of the Eurozone. But their ideas – comes the reply by a group of LUISS economists – is likely to aggravate the evils they intend to cure. An exchange of open letters on Le Monde and Faz followed
Angela Merkel is Chancellor again, but building a coalition government will not be an easy task. Future developments following this election will also have an impact on the European Union: from austerity to the European Monetary Fund and Schäuble’s role, the forecasts in a paper by the LUISS School of European Political Economy
In the aftermath of the German vote, Christian Blasberg analyzes – with an exclusive feature for LUISS Open – the results party by party, along with the scenarios for the possible new governments, from the große Koalition to the expected (some more, some less) returns to the Bundestag.
It is a common belief that Europe needs more investment, but not according to Daniel Gros: actually, less investments may indicate more growth
The discussion on the renewal of the Cotonou Agreement between the EU and African, Caribbean and Pacific areas, which is due to expire in 2020, was the focus of a seminar organized by the LUISS School of Government
A second extract from Martin Sandbu’s book on the European Single Currency and the economic crisis. The Italian translation of the volume will be out soon for LUISS University Press
Accordin to Martin Sandbu from the Financial Times, the crisis that hit the eurozone should not be blamed on the euro, but on a series of political mistakes. Sanbu’s latest book, published by Princeton UP, will be out soon in its Italian translation for LUISS University Press
Debt recovery and growth in the medium term are the objectives that should be pivotal for the Italian government, according to this policy brief by the LUISS School of European Political Economy
Would it be possible to have a common budget and a single Minister of finance in the eurozone ? Francesco Saraceno’s analysis in the latest number of his column for LUISS Open
An excerpt, for Open, from the new book “The Impact of the Economic Crisis of Southern European Democracies” by Leonardo Morlino and Francesco Raniolo
The ECB has already bought close to €1,800 billion of bonds. it is not possible to determine where rates would be today if the ECB had not engaged in its ‘quantitative easing’. It is possible, however, to ‘follow the money trail’ to ascertain how much was bought and by whom.
Our country must grow up and can not continue to lay the responsibility of its low growth on others. Some suggestions on the subject of banks and public debt by Stefano Micossi
The Assemblée is renewed, younger and undoubtedly legitimated to implement the President’s agenda. However, its socio-economic composition does not reflect French reality and it is unclear how this Parliament will be able to bring the people back to the polls
Alla vigilia del Consiglio europeo dei capi di governo dell’Ue a Bruxelles, alcuni spunti di riflessione del professore Carlo Bastasin (della School of European Political Economy)
Mattia Guidi’s editorial, examining the role held by the main protagonists in the U.K.’s general elections and outlining the possible future developments for the British government
In un incontro organizzato dalla School of Government della LUISS, John Ikenberry discute dell’ordine internazionale liberale con riferimento all’America di Trump e oltre
The economist Aghion has participated in a meeting organized by LUISS. From the Eurozone slowly growing again, to the rising inequality in the world, here are his thoughts collected for you by Open
Francesco Saraceno’s commentary on Social Europe analyze France elections’ impact after the vote. How much Europe we will see with Macron?
An op-ed by Daniel Gros, director of Brussels-based think tank CEPS, on the elections in France and on their impact from a European point of view
Rosamaria Bitetti and Ornella Darova try to understand the reasons behind the European expat movement in the essay “Economic Freedom as a Magnet for intra-EU28 Migration”
Romano Ferrari Zumbini presents some reflections on the European Union, its current status and future prospects. Drawn and adapted from a longer piece featured in the magazine “Il Mulino”
A basketball metaphor to analyze Italy’s current position in the Economic and Monetary Union and the European Union in general. The editorial by Marcello Messori, director of the LUISS School of European Political Economy
There are two keys for responding to the demand for flexible, innovative economies, able to adapt to technological change and the challenges put forward by globalization: investing in human capital and reviving the internal market
Gianni Toniolo analyzes the phase Europe and its citizens are going through with historical lucidity and economic competence. Leaders are needed that are capable of employing political capital in order to convince Italians that the road to their future is only through a stronger, more united and solidary Europe
The volume “Still a Western World? Continuity and change in global order” edited by Sergio Fabbrini and Raffaele Marchetti provides an analytical interpretation of the complex scenario of International Relations, while trying to explain its tendencies and to anticipate its future developments
La questione del budget dell’Unione Europea e delle sue politiche fiscali serve da spunto a Sergio Fabbrini per dare spazio a un’argomentazione di ampio respiro sul futuro stesso dell’Unione e proporre una strategia di riforma volta a garantire maggiore coesione e integrazione
In honor of the sixtieth anniversary of the Treaty of Rome, Franco Bruni, Sergio Fabbrini and Marcello Messori propose a possible strategy to relaunch the European integration process while hypothesizing a great involvement from Italy
In an op-ed published on December 7, 2016 on “Corriere della Sera”, which is reproduced here, Enzo Moavero Milanesi argues that it would be wise for Italy to make constructive proposals at European level, with the aim of promoting growth rather than closing itself behind “vetoes” and ending up alone